Autumn at the Pentagon

Coalition of the Reluctant

A senior Pentagon official
has spent this month on a magical mystery tour of little-known European
and Eurasian capitals trying to deliver a dribble of troops for Iraq
and Afghanistan.

The low-profile trip reads more like a geography test than a
geostrategic foray. It has whisked Debra Cagan, the deputy assistant
secretary of defense for coalition affairs, from Tirana to Skopje, and
on to Chisinau and Astana, among other luminous world metropolises.

In Chisinau — you guessed it; that’s the capital of Moldova — Cagan
asked for more sappers in Iraq. Moldova currently has 11 bomb-disposal
experts there. Yes, 11.

In downtown Tirana, hub of a 20th-century exercise in Communist
folly and now a place in need of American money, Cagan pressed the
Albanians to go beyond their 120-strong contingent in Iraq. Albania is
considering an additional 125 to 150 troops.

As for Cagan’s stops in the Macedonian capital of Skopje and
Kazakhstan’s Astana, it’s unclear what transpired. Macedonia has 40
troops in Iraq; the Kazakhs have 27 military engineers. Other states
visited included Ukraine, which may offer a little help in Iraq, and
the Czech Republic, which has 100 troops in Iraq and got promises of
military equipment.

Cagan declined to comment and a Pentagon spokeswoman, Lt. Col.
Almarah Belk, said in an e-mail message: “It is premature to discuss
the nature of her trip or any potential outcomes of her discussions
with the various countries.”

It is not premature, however, to say the trip smacks of desperation.
Keeping many flags flying in Iraq is critical to making talk of a
“coalition” credible. The 168,000 U.S. troops already account for about
94 percent of the forces there. The largest other contributor, Britain,
is to halve its presence to 2,500 next year.

Against this fraying backdrop, the strange idea of Pentagon brass
spending two weeks hop-scotching continents to cajole countries — many
economically hard-pressed — into sending a platoon or two looks less
outlandish. That’s where we are seven years into the Bush
administration: stretched to the limit.

The United States is as isolated in Iraq as a great power can be. A
first term spent riding roughshod over friends and vaunting “coalitions
of the willing” over alliances has not been righted by a second term of
diplomacy rehabilitation. Wounds linger.

I don’t know Cagan and she wouldn’t talk to me, but the least that
can be said is her reputation is more for Rumsfeldian bluntness than
the discretion of his successor as defense secretary, Robert Gates. At
a big NATO political-military conference in Brussels on Sept. 19-20,
anxiety over her trip ran high.

A Europe-based U.S. NATO official who attended e-mailed me to say
American diplomats are looking “for ways to limit the damage she is
sure to leave.”

The note portrayed her as “John Bolton on steroids” with a tendency to be brusque with allies.

The Pentagon describes Cagan as a highly effective player in the
securing of basing rights in Central Asia for the war on terror and a
well-connected builder of international coalitions.

A biography says she “was critical in transforming NATO’s military
forces to make them more responsive, agile and expeditionary.” Even
critics say she gets results.

But at a Sept. 11 meeting in Washington with six visiting British
parliamentarians, Cagan caused alarm similar to that expressed in
Brussels a week later. The M.P.’s were briefed on the difficulty of
dialogue with Tehran and U.S. concern that a British troop withdrawal
from southern Iraq could benefit Iran.

At one point, according to a British press report, Cagan expressed
hatred toward Iranians, prompting a formal call for her resignation
from the National Iranian American Council, which represents about one
million Iranian-Americans.

The Pentagon denied the remark. Alasdair McDonnell, a Social
Democratic and Labor M.P. who was present, told me: “I won’t confirm or
deny she said that. She might nuke me in the middle of the night. She’s
not somebody I’d want to tangle with.”

Bernard Jenkin, a Conservative who was also present, said “Cagan is
straightforward, and if you’re politically disposed to be put out by
her, you would be.” He himself was not.

Colonel Belk said Cagan’s briefing emphasized “the U.S.
administration’s position that a precipitous U.K. withdrawal from Iraq
could lead to the forfeiture of some gains and would help Iran.”

Whatever Cagan’s exact words, this much seems clear: a U.S.
administration casting around for soldiering scraps in Moldova and
Macedonia should be careful about saber-rattling toward Iran.

U.S. hands are full in Iraq. Gates knows that. Nicholas Burns, the
State Department’s point man on Iran, knows that. My reading of them is
that predictions of war with Iran are overblown, however hawkish the
likes of coalition-cobbling Cagan may be.

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